Utilizing Model Residuals to Identify Rental Properties of Interest: The Price Anomaly Score (PAS) and Its Application to Real-time Data in Manhattan

Abstract

Understanding whether a property is priced fairly hinders buyers and sellers since they usually do not have an objective viewpoint of the price distribution for the overall market of their interest. Drawing from data collected of all possible available properties for rent in Manhattan as of September 2023, this paper aims to strengthen our understanding of model residuals; specifically on machine learning models which generalize for a majority of the distribution of a well-proportioned dataset. Most models generally perceive deviations from predicted values as mere inaccuracies, however this paper proposes a different vantage point: when generalizing to at least 75% of the dataset, the remaining deviations reveal significant insights. To harness these insights, we introduce the Price Anomaly Score (PAS), a metric capable of capturing boundaries between irregularly predicted prices. By combining relative pricing discrepancies with statistical significance, the Price Anomaly Score (PAS) offers a multifaceted view of rental valuations. This metric allows experts to identify overpriced or underpriced properties within a dataset by aggregating PAS values, then fine-tuning upper and lower boundaries to any threshold to set indicators of choice.