DOI : https://doi.org/10.18517/ijods.5.2.75-79.2024

The Accuracy Analysis of Loan Interest Rate Forecasting Using Double Exponential Smoothing Methods

Ansari Saleh Ahmar (1), Sitti Masyitah Meliyana (2), Abdul Rahman (3), Rusli (4)
(1) Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia
(2) Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia
(3) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia
(4) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, Indonesia
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How to cite (IJASEIT) :
[1]
A. S. Ahmar, S. M. Meliyana, A. Rahman, and Rusli, “The Accuracy Analysis of Loan Interest Rate Forecasting Using Double Exponential Smoothing Methods”, Int. J. Data. Science., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 75–79, Dec. 2024.
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This study aims to forecast the rupiah loan interest rates at commercial banks in Indonesia using the exponential smoothing method. The data used is the credit interest rate data from December 2015 to September 2016. The exponential smoothing methods applied i.e. double exponential smoothing. The results show that the double exponential smoothing method provides the accurate predictions with the smallest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0,06629. The optimal parameters used in double exponential smoothing are an alpha of 0.3 and a beta of 0.3. These findings indicate that double exponential smoothing can effectively capture trends and patterns in credit interest rate data, making it a reliable tool for future loan interest rate forecasting. The results of this study are expected to make a significant contribution to strategic decision-making in the banking sector, particularly in risk management and loan interest rate strategy determination.





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