Long-term Hydrometeorological Time-series Analysis over the Central Highland of West Papua

Sandy H. S Herho (1) , Dasapta E. Irawan (2) , Rubiyanto Kapid (3) , Siti N. Kaban (4)
(1) Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, United States
(2) Applied Geology Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung, Indonesia
(3) Paleontology and Quaternary Geology Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung, Indonesia
(4) School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
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This article presents an innovative data-driven approach for examining long-term temporal rainfall patterns in the central highlands of West Papua, Indonesia. We utilized wavelet transforms to identify signs of a negative temporal correlation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12). Based on this cause-and-effect relationship, we employed dynamic causality modeling using the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) model to predict SPI-12. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was used as an attribute variable in this predictive framework. Consequently, this dynamic neural network model effectively captured common patterns within the SPI-12 time series. The implications of this study are significant for advancing data-driven precipitation models in regions characterized by intricate topography within the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC).

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How to Cite
S. H. S. Herho, D. E. Irawan, R. Kapid, and S. N. Kaban, “Long-term Hydrometeorological Time-series Analysis over the Central Highland of West Papua”, Int. J. Data. Science., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 84-96, Dec. 2023.
Author Biographies

Sandy H. S Herho, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, United States

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Dasapta E. Irawan, Applied Geology Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung, Indonesia

Applied Geology Research Group

Rubiyanto Kapid, Paleontology and Quaternary Geology Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Bandung, Indonesia

Paleontology and Quaternary Geology Research Group

Siti N. Kaban, School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States

School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation


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